Rutherford County Board of Education members spent the bulk of their Nov. 18 meeting focused on enrollment projections and proposed boundary changes after staff warned rapid residential development around Stewarts Creek will strain school capacity.

Rob, the district presenter, told the board the district’s modeling shows the Stewarts Creek area has “over 6,000 units that right now are planned to be built,” and that the district is “tracking towards 56,000 students” K–12. Staff said those planned units, combined with historic yield rates, require changes to elementary and middle school boundaries to avoid severe overcrowding.

District staff outlined two elementary rezoning concepts. Concept 1 moves more currently enrolled students and, according to the projections presented, would extend relief for Stewarts Creek through the 2029–30 school year. Concept 2 shifts more geographic area and, staff said, provides shorter near-term relief (through roughly 2028–29) but preserves more undeveloped land in the short term. Staff noted a difference in projected resident student totals of roughly 50 students in some scenarios and that either option would move on the order of 300 students in initial boundary changes.

Board members pressed staff on the underlying forecasts. Rob said the district picks up new subdivisions when they reach preliminary plat status, validates the numbers at final plat and again when families move in; he said the model has historically been “99 to 100% accurate” on broader forecasts but can vary at a neighborhood level depending on housing product. Board members also asked about operational responses if enrollment outpaces capacity, including use of portable classrooms; staff said portables typically cap near 20–24 students and that, without rezoning, the district would have to deploy substantially more portables.

Several board members urged caution about repeatedly rezoning young elementary students. “I am extremely disheartened that we told the public they would be going back to Stewarts Creek after the new elementary school was built and we are now talking about telling some of those same families that they’re now gonna have to go back,” said Miss Darby, criticizing frequent boundary shifts and urging the board to consider alternatives such as K–2 splits or creative long-term options.

The board also discussed whether physical additions at Stewarts Creek are feasible. Facilities staff said significant constraints (including underground geothermal fields and limited utilities) make large additions impractical; they estimated a conceptual classroom addition could provide roughly a dozen to 16 classrooms but would be costly and would not solve cafeteria or gym capacity issues.

Middle school maps were presented separately; opening the new Poplar Hill middle school will shift attendance patterns and relieve pressure at several middle schools, but several buildings (including Smyrna Middle, Rocky Fork Middle and Christiana Middle) remain projected to exceed capacity in the 2029–31 window under current scenarios.

Several board members asked staff to run targeted transportation and logistics analyses to compare the concepts’ operational impacts. The board did not vote on a final map; staff said they will provide more detailed cost estimates for any building additions, updated maps with specific neighborhood impacts and refined transportation models at the next meeting.

The board’s next procedural steps include additional modeling and a public review period before any formal boundary adoption.