A consultant presenting a county‑fund reserve analysis told the Jefferson County Board that the study used Monte Carlo simulation "—a multiverse of the county" with 10,000 parallel runs to estimate how often reserves would stay above the bond‑rating critical threshold. The consultant said that, read as a cumulative‑probability chart over five years, the county would need about $14,000,000 to be roughly 80% confident of remaining above the critical threshold and about $15,500,000 to be about 90% confident.

The consultant emphasized that risks do not "add up like regular numbers" and recommended using a reserves range rather than a single point target; using a range makes compliance assessments clearer when reserves move slightly above or below fixed thresholds. "It's kind of cost effective, if you will, to stay off the flat point or portion of the line," the presenter said when describing the diminishing returns of buying additional confidence with more reserves.

Finance committee members framed that analysis as supporting a proposed amendment to the county fund‑balance procedure. The board considered Ordinance 202513, which the finance committee had forwarded after a 4–1 committee vote, and discussed committee concerns about ensuring a robust fund balance to withstand downturns. Supervisor Christiansen, who had voted against the committee recommendation, said he had consulted with finance staff and would support the ordinance after those conversations.

The ordinance was adopted by voice vote; members said the change will help the county better justify and manage its reserve levels in line with the study. The finance chair said the ordinance implements policy changes reflecting the Government Finance Officers Association study the county contracted to quantify potential costs from identified risks.

The board also discussed related fiscal tools and noted that the study incorporated the county's historical surpluses, FEMA and other mitigations and bond‑rating expectations when modeling reserve adequacy. No immediate change to the county's liquid reserves was announced at the meeting; the ordinance modifies procedures and gives the finance committee additional direction on fund‑balance management.

Next steps: committee and staff follow‑up to translate the study's recommended ranges into specific policy targets and reporting language.