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Board reviews K-8 boundary plan, applied economics study forecasts uncertain early enrollment

November 13, 2025 | Maricopa Unified School District (4441), School Districts, Arizona


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Board reviews K-8 boundary plan, applied economics study forecasts uncertain early enrollment
Maricopa Unified School District staff presented recommended attendance boundaries for the district's first K-8 and received a demographic briefing from Applied Economics showing modest near-term enrollment growth and significant uncertainty due to housing timelines and school-choice programs.

Miss Tracy Pastor, who led the boundary committee, said the district's work was guided by principles to plan for future growth, balance enrollment between elementary and middle grades, minimize travel distances for families and preserve feeder patterns. She described the recommended K-8 attendance area on the board's maps and said yellow-striped and red-striped areas indicate Santa Cruz and Saddleback students who would move into the new K-8 in July 2026. Pastor said committees met multiple times and that maps and communications will be posted to the district website on Dec. 11; the final recommendation will be returned to the board in December for possible approval.

Applied Economics principals Rick Bremer and Don Graves presented enrollment modeling and housing-permitting data. Bremer said district enrollment increased by "182" students this year, below previous expectations, and attributed much of the shortfall to an increase in school-choice options such as the statewide ESA program and the opening of a new charter. He gave a likely K-8 opening-year range of about 270610 students but said central planning assumptions put the target near 440.

Board members raised concerns about Pima Butte's capacity if Moonlight Ridge develops and asked for grade-by-grade counts for students transitioning from existing schools (Santa Cruz, Saddleback, Desert Wind, Maricopa Wells). Staff said boundary exceptions and open-enrollment options will remain available for families and that transportation for out-of-zone open-enrollment students may not be provided. Pastor emphasized the district's communication plan, which includes posting maps online and calling affected families directly to avoid surprises.

Next steps: staff will post maps and communication materials Dec. 11 and return with the final boundary recommendation for board action in December.

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