The Wenatchee School District's business office told the board on Oct. 28 that long-term demographic trends and current capture rates are driving a multi-year decline in student enrollment, with particular pressure on incoming kindergarten classes.

Executive Director of Business and Finance Sean Fitzgerald said district funding is driven by average annual full-time-equivalent enrollment (AA FTE) and explained the district's monthly counting method. He said September is typically the lowest monthly count and October the highest because Running Start begins and students settle into attendance.

Key data points presented:

- Birth-rate decline: Fitzgerald noted county and district birth-rate peaks in 201415 and a drop of about 71 births in the district area in 2020. He said a 2024 uptick of roughly 50 births provides some hope but will not immediately reverse kindergarten declines.

- Kindergarten capture: The district's capture rate for students born in the district area is roughly 76% for the current and previous school year; Fitzgerald used that rate in conservative projections.

- Current kindergarten FTE: Fitzgerald reported roughly 380 FTE in the current incoming kindergarten class, calling it "our smallest kindergarten class to date" in the available 10-year data.

- Forecast: Using current trends and birth-year projections, the district projected potential enrollment declines totaling roughly 880 students over the next five years under the modeling assumptions presented.

Board discussion: Members asked whether cross-river population (Douglas County), charter and private-school options and Running Start participation were being captured in the models. Fitzgerald said the analysis accounts for Pinnacle/Pinnacles Prep and private options and that Running Start reduces counts at the junior/senior level.

Facility and budget implications: Board members raised the implications for capital planning, including a planned high-school bond and the danger of building to a peak that future enrollment may not sustain. Superintendent and board members said bond-sizing discussions should account for long-term forecasts and demographic uncertainty.

What happens next: The district said it will continue demographic updates, expects an updated demographic study on a schedule similar to the previous year (presentation anticipated in February or March), and will bring enrollment data into upcoming budget and restructuring discussions.