Ben Ulbrich, deputy utility manager for Power Supply, told the Los Alamos County board the Foxtail Flats land lease is complete but schedule slippage has pushed in-service milestones later than originally planned.

"The land lease approval of Foxtail Flats was delayed, if you add it all up now, to approximately 10 months. The lease is now complete... That's a go," Ulbrich said. He added the developer received a Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) in July and signed the lease in August.

Ulbrich framed Foxtail Flats as one part of a broader integrated resource plan (IRP) update and summarized risks the county staff are tracking: tariff and tax-credit uncertainty for the developer, the county’s expected excess of daytime photovoltaic (PV) generation, water and hydro uncertainties at El Vado, and changing regional market structures.

Why it matters: Foxtail Flats will add large amounts of solar and battery storage to the county portfolio. That creates days with more PV generation than the county can use locally; staff projected the county could face situations in which it must curtail generation or sell excess power at uncertain price levels.

Staff’s assessment and options

Ulbrich listed how the county might avoid or reduce financial losses from excess daytime PV. He said those options—ordered by staff preference—include: selling 10 MW of Laramie River Station (LRS) output during the day and using Foxtail Flats PV in its place; short- to mid-term power sales (1–5 years) to third parties; additional sales to Sandia National Laboratories/Kirtland Air Force Base (the county expects a notional 30 MW Sandia share under the draft 2026 Electric Coordination Agreement); operational changes to the LANL combustion gas turbine (CGTG) to bid into day-ahead markets; selling directly into EDAM or similar markets; adding more battery storage; or, as a last resort, curtailing PV.

"First one is to sell Laramie River Station 10 megawatts during the day when we all have plenty of PV and use PV in place of it," Ulbrich said. He cautioned the mechanics and net value of some options depend on future market prices and transmission arrangements.

Market and scheduling changes

Ulbrich described two regional market developments that will affect county operations. PNM plans to join EDAM (the extended day‑ahead market being implemented under California ISO structures) and will bring transmission customers like the county into that market arrangement; he said PNM anticipates turning on EDAM functionality around October 2027. Separately, Laramie River Station is joining the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) regional transmission organization, which will change how LRS output is scheduled and sold.

He told the board the county cannot opt out of PNM’s EDAM participation—"we go along for the ride with PNM"—and staff are working with PNM to understand operational roles, services, and possible obligations. Ulbrich recommended staff provide a board briefing on how EDAM (and similar market arrangements) work before the board must make related decisions.

Load forecasting, contractual context and risk exposure

A major uncertainty is the Los Alamos power pool (LAPP) load forecast, which combines county load and Department of Energy/Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) load. Ulbrich said LANL’s load has been variable: for example, a linear accelerator has operated at partial output for the past year and the long‑term ramp for computing facilities may be smaller than earlier forecasts. Those laboratory-side uncertainties affect how much of Foxtail Flats the county will be able to absorb.

Ulbrich also described contract context: the county has scheduling obligations to Sandia/Kirtland under an existing scheduling services agreement and is negotiating an Electric Coordination Agreement (ECA) with DOE/LANL that staff said includes Sandia’s notional 30 MW share and 25% of Foxtail Flats battery capacity. He said some contractual clauses (including land‑lease excuse‑of‑delay language) were invoked by the developer to justify schedule slips.

Potential costs of curtailment and storage economics

Staff modeled worst‑case exposures if the county were forced to curtail PV. Ulbrich used a working figure of about $70 per MWh as the cost to the county for power it cannot use (about $38 in energy costs plus roughly $30 in foregone production tax credits, he said). He presented modeling that showed adding battery capacity reduces curtailed energy but concluded the incremental benefit did not justify the near‑term incremental cost at modeled prices: a 20 MW / 80 MWh battery added roughly $3 million per year in contract‑equivalent cost while averting about $1.5 million per year of curtailment exposure in the model.

"So that's where I get the last bullet, benefit to cost ratio of 0.5," Ulbrich said, summarizing staff’s view that buying additional battery capacity for the immediate timeframe is not cost effective under the assumptions used.

Hydro facilities: El Vado and Abiquiu

Ulbrich closed with a briefing on the county’s two hydro plants. He said Abiquiu generation declined in FY2025 and unit energy cost at Abiquiu rose (staff averaged about $38.31/MWh across three years but the FY2025 figure was higher). El Vado generation was very low for multiple years while repairs to the dam face and associated outages occurred; because of limited generation, El Vado’s per‑MWh accounting showed much higher unit costs (Ulbrich reported an average near $717/MWh for the brief active year included in the summary, reflecting the years with very little output).

Staff said further work is planned to identify cost‑saving measures, evaluate whether limited operations or reduced staffing are allowable under safety, FERC and dam‑owner requirements, and present options for the next budget cycle.

Board reaction and next steps

Board members asked for a tutorial on EDAM and market structures; Ulbrich and staff agreed to schedule an informational briefing. Several board members expressed support for pursuing short‑term sales and term contracts as a primary near‑term mitigation while holding longer‑term technology decisions (additional batteries or long‑duration storage) as items to revisit.

"We are planning for that. I have reached out to multiple different energy suppliers to get indicative pricing," Ulbrich said when asked about covering the expected gap until Foxtail Flats begins commercial deliveries.

Ending

Staff emphasized the modeling and proposed rankings are an initial, high‑level plan that will be refined. Ulbrich said the county will continue to refine load forecasts with DOE/LANL, work with PNM on EDAM interface details, and return to the board with more refined financial gap analyses and any recommended contractual actions.