City staff presented a preliminary analysis Oct. 17 of infrastructure and financial impacts from high rates of building electrification and told the Climate Action and Sustainability Committee the physical gas distribution system is “sticky” — meaning random, dispersed electrification would not free up large amounts of mains for abandonment.

"This isn't a study about banning or withdrawing gas service or selling the gas utility," Jonathan Abenshein, assistant director for climate action, said when introducing the study. The study instead models how different levels of electrification would affect gas sales, which costs decline with lower throughput, and which fixed costs persist until mains are abandoned.

Key findings staff reported
- Cost drivers. The staff analysis grouped utility costs into those that decline directly with reduced gas sales (for example, gas supply and related environmental charges) and those that are fixed until physical infrastructure is removed. In the model year used for the analysis, roughly 60% of costs varied with sales while about 40% were relatively fixed.
- Limited mains eligible for abandonment. Under scenarios that assume 40% or 80% reductions in gas sales achieved randomly across customers, the analysis estimated only about 10% of distribution mains would become candidates for abandonment. Staff said that figure will likely be reduced further after engineering checks and modeling that account for network connectivity.
- Block-level electrification matters. Staff said coordinated, neighborhood- or block-scale conversions create the most cost-effective opportunities to abandon mains and avoid other maintenance costs; scattered adoption provides comparatively little immediate infrastructure savings.
- Study scope and timing. The analysis is preliminary, uses a 2030 scenario for comparative modeling, and is not a projection of a phased timeline. Staff said the final study will include engineering runs to validate which mains are physically eligible for abandonment and a financial model to estimate revenue needs under different scenarios.

Operational and safety notes
Alan Curatori, utilities director, said the city would decommission services by capping at the main in the street if a block is fully electrified, rather than leaving pressurized laterals to individual properties. "We would actually bring that back to the main and cap it there," he said, citing safety and cross-bore concerns that argue for removing pressurized lines from service rather than only leaving them at the property line.

Why it matters: Staff said the city cannot rely on infrastructure cost declines to offset lost gas revenue once widespread but piecemeal electrification occurs. That means the city will likely need to identify revenue or rate-design strategies to operate the gas utility safely and affordably while supporting electrification programs.

Public comment and committee discussion
Residents urged a mix of simplification and investment. David Cole said the city should simplify permitting and avoid punitive enforcement: "Fix the system. Don't find the people," he said. Steven Roosevelt encouraged broader investment in renewable generation, storage and demand-response to lower electricity costs and speed electrification.

Next steps and timeline
Staff said the work will continue with engineering validation, further Monte Carlo modeling and scenario analysis. The city aims to complete modeling and produce a final report in early 2026; staff called this timeline ambitious and said more time may be needed to reconcile engineering and financial models.

Ending
Committee members asked staff to continue refining the model, explore mitigation and revenue strategies, and look at whether rate design or targeted subsidies could reduce impacts on particular customer classes as the transition proceeds. The study’s final results are expected to inform SCAP funding and longer-term electrification strategy discussions.